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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-10T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25870/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery (data gap during event in STEREO A as it travels out in the field of view). The source of this CME is a double ribbon flare near AR13366 and plage region 13358 and associated filament eruption starting around 2023-07-10T03:20Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 131, 304, and 171. The associated filament is very clearly seen in GOES SUVI 304 as well. Arrival signature: Clear interplanetary shock consisting of magnetic field enhancement from 7 nT to 14 nT, rapid increase in ACE particle density, and rapid but relatively small increases in solar wind speed and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-13T15:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-13T06:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-10T11:07Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 900
Longitude (deg): 37
Latitude (deg): -17
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 77.82 hour(s)
Difference: 9.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-07-10T10:00Z

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